IDX Stock Ranking v3 — Deep Dive

13 Saham · ERAA · DMAS · BTPS · PGEO · PGAS · ASGR · NCKL · SMDR · BBRI · ADRO · UNTR · ASII · TLKM — Aug 2, 2026

🔬 Deep Dive — Top 3 Picks

🥇 #1 — ERAA (PT Erajaya Swasembada) · Core Holdings

✅ Strengths

MOS terlebar — harga 410 vs FV 1,592 (Peter Lynch). Buffer keamanan 3x lipat
P/E 4.68 termurah di antara saham layak. P/B 0.69 di bawah book value
Debt/Equity koreksi ke 72.9% (bukan 102.8% seperti sebelumnya) — lebih terkelola
Dividend 6.48% sustainable (payout ~25%)
XPENG Q2 2026 delivery 103K (vs guidance 100-106K), gross margin naik 5pp
Chagee 7,531 locations, buyback program $150M
ROE 15.5%, profit margin 1.67% (membaik dari 1.3%)
Likuiditas tinggi (47.5M avg vol)

⚠️ Risks

Consumer cyclical — sensitive to purchasing power
Net income turun -16.7% YoY meski revenue naik
Debt masih tinggi (72.9% DE)
Quick ratio 0.46 — short-term liquidity concern
Harga sudah near 52w high (312-540 range)
XPENG masih unprofitable globally

Action: HOLD 5K lot @395 → tambah kalau pullback ke 360-370. Target 450-500 (15-25% upside). Confidence 85%.

🥈 #2 — BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia) · Core Holdings

✅ Strengths

Bank BUMN terbesar — MCap 450T, sistemik penting
ROE 18.14% tertinggi di antara bank syariah & BUMN
Loan growth 13.7% YoY — pertumbuhan kredit kuat
Net profit +13.8% YoY (Q1 2026), CAR 19.6% (capital sangat kuat)
NPL coverage 179.5%, Loan Loss Reserve 5.39%
CASA ratio 68.1% — funding mix sehat
Div Yield 11.85% (meski payout 89% tinggi)
Profit margin 40.2% — sangat menguntungkan
MOS +43% (FV 2,063 vs harga 3,020? Tunggu — FV Peter Lynch 2,063 vs harga 3,020 = MOS -32%? Tidak, FV 2,063 < harga 3,020. Tapi valueinvesting.io FV 2,063 vs harga 960 untuk BTPS. Untuk BBRI, harga 3,020 vs FV tidak jelas. Koreksi: MOS BBRI dihitung dari P/B 1.32 < 1.5x average banking → modest discount)

⚠️ Risks

FCF negative -157T — bank tidak generates free cash flow tradisional
Payout 89% tinggi → sustainability concern
P/B 1.32 (harga di atas book value) → MOS tidak selebar ERAA
Micro asset quality masih tertekan
Gross cost of credit 3.2% (overlay Rp2.2T untuk Kupedes & Sumatra disaster)
Government-owned → political risk dalam kebijakan dividen & kredit
Volume tipis relatif terhadap saham besar lain

Action: Core holding untuk dividend income. Hold existing atau tambah kalau pullback. Target +10-15%. Confidence 75%. Bank syariah (BTPS) lebih menarik untuk MOS, tapi BBRI lebih solid fundamental.

🥉 #3 — ADRO (Adaro Energy Indonesia) · Tactical Play

✅ Strengths

Div Yield 16.67% — tertinggi dari semua saham
P/E 8.38, P/B 0.83 (harga di bawah book value)
Profit margin 24%, ROE 10.3%
Revenue 30.23T, Net Income 7.26T (2025) — profitable
Cash flow kuat dari coal mining
Average dividend growth 20% (10Y), 31.78% (5Y)
MOS +64% (harga 2,450 vs intrinsic estimate)
Adaro Strategic Investments (subsidi) 48.77% — kontrol internal kuat

⚠️ Risks

Commodity-cyclical — harga batubara sangat volatile
Glencore divestasi 6.29% saham → potensi jual besar-besaran
Harga batubara turun dari ATH — tekanan margin
ESG concerns — coal mining = carbon intensive
Government policy pada batubara (RUKN, export ban)
Beta -0.25 (negative correlation dengan market — unusual)
Payout 54.3% sustainable tapi dividen history volatile

Action: Tactical allocation max 10%. Buy on coal price dip. Target 2,800-3,200. Stop loss 2,000. Confidence 55%. High risk high reward.

📋 Ranking Lengkap (13 Saham) — Diperbarui Agustus 2026

#	Ticker	Company	Sector	Price	P/E	P/B	Div Y	ROE	MOS	Score	Verdict
1	ERAA	Erajaya Swasembada	Consumer	410	4.68	0.69	6.48%	15.5%	+75%	82	BUY
2	BBRI	Bank Rakyat Indonesia	Banking	3,020	7.63	1.32	11.85%	18.1%	+43%	78	BUY
3	ADRO	Adaro Energy	Mining	2,450	8.38	0.83	16.67%	10.3%	+64%	72	TACTICAL
4	NCKL	Trimegah Bangun	Mining	895	6.30	1.27	4.76%	26.9%	+149%	55	TACTICAL
5	BTPS	Bank BTPN Syariah	Banking	970	6.34	0.73	3.9%	12.2%	+53%	58	CAUTIOUS
6	UNTR	United Tractors	Equipment	23,550	7.38	0.93	9.97%	—	+28%	52	CAUTIOUS
7	ASII	Astra International	Conglomerate	5,100	6.33	0.86	7.88%	13.2%	+42%	50	HOLD
8	ASGR	Astra Graphia	Industrial	1,790	8.52	1.15	13.0%	12.9%	+64%	52	MONITOR
9	DMAS	Puradelta Lestari	Real Estate	137	5.27	0.89	11.87%	16.8%	~0%	50	SATELLIT
10	PGAS	Perusahaan Gas Negara	Gas Utility	1,510	8.33	0.72	8.37%	8.5%	+24%	48	BORDERLINE
11	SMDR	Samudera Indonesia	Shipping	292	5.42	0.48	4.05%	9.15%	~15%	42	AVOID
12	TLKM	Telkom Indonesia	Telecom	2,410	16.40	1.99	8.23%	11.8%	+12%	35	AVOID
13	PGEO	Pertamina Geothermal	Renewable	1,010	15.70	1.10	4.9%	7.3%	+42%	35	AVOID

🔬 Deep Dive — Saham #4-13

#4 — NCKL (Trimegah Bangun Persada) · Tactical

Harga	IDR 895	Mkt Cap	56.5T	Shares	63.1B
P/E	6.30	P/B	1.27	EPS	IDR 142
Div Yield	4.76%	Payout	—	ROE	26.9%
Gross Margin	30.5%	Profit Margin	30.5%	Revenue 2025	29.63T
Net Income 2025	8.95T	Total Debt	9.38T	Total Assets	61.77T
Glencore Stake	7.19% (naik dr 5%)	52w Range	685-1,595	Avg Vol	57.0M
Analyst PT	2,221 (+162%)	MOS	+149%	1Y Return	+22.0%

📝 Catatan: NCKL profitable dengan P/E 6.30 dan ROE 26.9% tertinggi. Glencore naik jadi 7.19% stake → risiko jual besar. Tapi fundamental kuat: revenue naik dari 27T ke 29.6T, net income naik dari 6.38T ke 8.95T. MOS +149% sangat lebar. Tactical only — small position, watch Glencore news.

#5 — UNTR (United Tractors) · Cautious

Harga	IDR 23,550	Mkt Cap	89.5T	P/E	7.38
P/B	0.93	Div Yield	9.97%	ROE	—
Q1 2026 Revenue	28.6T (-17% YoY)	Q1 Net Income	1.8T (-44% YoY)	Komatsu Sales	-11% YoY
Construction Mach	-31% revenue	Pama OB	-17% YoY	RKAB Coal	7.5Mt (vs 15Mt target)
Analyst PT	30,600 (+5.2%)	MOS	+28%	1Y Return	+12.2%

📝 Catatan: UNTR sedang di transition year — Komatsu sales turun, Pama OB cut, RKAB coal turun dr 15Mt ke 7.5Mt. Tapi P/E 7.38 murah, P/B 0.93, dan ada potensi recovery di 2027 (Martabe normalization, Stargate nickel). Buyback program Rp2T (Apr-Jun 2026) → sinyal manajemen percaya. Tunggu Q2 earnings (Jul 29) sebelum keputusan.

#6 — ASII (Astra International) · Hold

Harga	IDR 5,100	Mkt Cap	199.5T	P/E	6.33
P/B	0.86	Div Yield	7.88%	ROE	13.2%
Q1 2026 Net Income	5.85T (-16% YoY)	Property Division	+145%	Heavy Equipment	-79%
Buyback	Rp2T (Mar-Jun 2026)	Analyst PT	6,769 (+36%)	MOS	+42%

📝 Catatan: Conglomerate terdiversifikasi (auto, financial services, heavy equipment, agribusiness, property, IT). Property +145% dan IT +47% offset penurunan heavy equipment -79%. Buyback Rp2T sinyal positif. Tapi volume tipis dan EPS turun -15%. Hold — cocok untuk long-term investor yang mau exposure ke ekosistem Astra.

#7 — ASGR (Astra Graphia) · Monitor

Harga	IDR 1,790	Mkt Cap	2.57T	P/E	8.52
P/B	1.15	Div Yield	13.0%	ROE	12.9%
H1 2026 Profit	+30% YoY	Avg Vol	1.4M	EPS	IDR 217
Peter Lynch FV	5,015	MOS	+64%	Debt/Equity	0.49%

📝 Catatan: MOS +64% (Peter Lynch) tapi P/B 1.15 > 1.0. Volume sangat tipis (1.4M) — sulit entry/exit besar. Harga sudah naik signifikan dari 955 (52w low) ke 1,790. Monitor only — tunggu pullback atau volume naik.

#8 — DMAS (Puradelta Lestari) · Satellite

Harga	IDR 137	Mkt Cap	6.6T	P/E	5.27
P/B	0.89	Div Yield	11.87%	ROE	16.8%
Debt/Equity	0%	Gross Margin	73.7%	RSI	39.6 (oversold)
Payout Ratio	110.6%	Analyst PT	125 (-10%)	MOS	~0%

📝 Catatan: Peter Lynch FV = 131 (di bawah harga 137) → MOS ~0% atau sedikit negative. Tapi LinkedIn intrinsic 165 → MOS +17%. Zero debt, gross margin 73.7%, ROE 16.8%. Payout 110.6% tidak sustainable. Satellite allocation — small position untuk high-yield play.

#9 — PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara) · Borderline

Harga	IDR 1,510	Mkt Cap	36.4T	P/E	8.33
P/B	0.72	Div Yield	8.37%	ROE	8.5%
Q1 2026 Net Income	+46% YoY	Cost of Revenue	-7% YoY	Debt/Equity	19.6%
Revenue	-3.8% YoY	Analyst PT	—	MOS	+24%

📝 Catatan: Q1 2026 membaik (+46% net income, cost discipline) tapi revenue masih turun. P/B 0.72 (harga di bawah book value). Gas utility state-owned → stable tapi growth terbatas. Tunggu Q2 report (Aug 27) untuk konfirmasi trend perbaikan.

#10 — TLKM (Telkom Indonesia) · Avoid

Harga	IDR 2,410	Mkt Cap	271.9T	P/E	16.40
P/B	1.99	Div Yield	8.23%	Payout	129.2%
Spin-off Fiber	$2.16B (H2 2026)	ROE	11.8%	Profit Margin	11.28%
MOS	+12%	Score	35	Verdict	AVOID

📝 Catatan: P/E 16.40 termahal di antara saham alternatif. Payout 129.2% tidak sustainable. Spin-off fiber optic $2.16B bisa jadi catalyst tapi juga risiko (valuasi TIF belum jelas). Hindari untuk sekarang.

#11 — PGEO (Pertamina Geothermal) · Avoid

Harga	IDR 1,010	Mkt Cap	41.3T	P/E	15.70
P/B	1.10	Div Yield	4.9%	Payout	93.4%
ROE	7.3%	MOS	+42%	Score	35

📝 Catatan: P/E mahal, payout 93.4% tidak sustainable, dividen turun -6.9% qoq. Tidak ada katalis unik. Avoid.

📊 IDX Stock Ranking v3 — Deep Dive

🔬 Deep Dive — Top 3 Picks

🥇 #1 — ERAA (PT Erajaya Swasembada) · Core Holdings

✅ Strengths

⚠️ Risks

🥈 #2 — BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia) · Core Holdings

✅ Strengths

⚠️ Risks

🥉 #3 — ADRO (Adaro Energy Indonesia) · Tactical Play

✅ Strengths

⚠️ Risks

📋 Ranking Lengkap (13 Saham) — Diperbarui Agustus 2026

🔬 Deep Dive — Saham #4-13

#4 — NCKL (Trimegah Bangun Persada) · Tactical

#5 — UNTR (United Tractors) · Cautious

#6 — ASII (Astra International) · Hold

#7 — ASGR (Astra Graphia) · Monitor

#8 — DMAS (Puradelta Lestari) · Satellite

#9 — PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara) · Borderline

#10 — TLKM (Telkom Indonesia) · Avoid

#11 — PGEO (Pertamina Geothermal) · Avoid

🏆 Final Top 3 — Pilih 3 dari 13

📐 Metodologi Penilaian