๐Ÿ“Š IDX Stock Ranking v3 โ€” Deep Dive

13 Saham ยท ERAA ยท DMAS ยท BTPS ยท PGEO ยท PGAS ยท ASGR ยท NCKL ยท SMDR ยท BBRI ยท ADRO ยท UNTR ยท ASII ยท TLKM โ€” Aug 2, 2026

#1
ERAA
Erajaya Swasembada
IDR 410
P/E 4.68 ยท MOS +75% ยท ROE 15.5%
Div Yield 6.48% ยท DE 72.9%
โœ… CORE
MOS +75%
#2
BBRI
Bank Rakyat Indonesia
IDR 3,020
P/E 7.63 ยท MOS +43% ยท ROE 18.1%
Div Yield 11.85% ยท Loan Growth 13.7%
โœ… CORE
MOS +43%
#3
ADRO
Adaro Energy Indonesia
IDR 2,450
P/E 8.38 ยท MOS +64% ยท ROE 10.3%
Div Yield 16.67% ยท MCap 74T
๐ŸŽฏ TACTICAL
MOS +64%
4
NCKL
Trimegah Bangun Persada
IDR 895
P/E 6.30 ยท MOS +149% ยท ROE 26.9%
Div Yield 4.76% ยท Vol 57M
๐ŸŽฏ TACTICAL
MOS +149%

๐Ÿ”ฌ Deep Dive โ€” Top 3 Picks

๐Ÿฅ‡ #1 โ€” ERAA (PT Erajaya Swasembada) ยท Core Holdings

โœ… Strengths

  • MOS terlebar โ€” harga 410 vs FV 1,592 (Peter Lynch). Buffer keamanan 3x lipat
  • P/E 4.68 termurah di antara saham layak. P/B 0.69 di bawah book value
  • Debt/Equity koreksi ke 72.9% (bukan 102.8% seperti sebelumnya) โ€” lebih terkelola
  • Dividend 6.48% sustainable (payout ~25%)
  • XPENG Q2 2026 delivery 103K (vs guidance 100-106K), gross margin naik 5pp
  • Chagee 7,531 locations, buyback program $150M
  • ROE 15.5%, profit margin 1.67% (membaik dari 1.3%)
  • Likuiditas tinggi (47.5M avg vol)

โš ๏ธ Risks

  • Consumer cyclical โ€” sensitive to purchasing power
  • Net income turun -16.7% YoY meski revenue naik
  • Debt masih tinggi (72.9% DE)
  • Quick ratio 0.46 โ€” short-term liquidity concern
  • Harga sudah near 52w high (312-540 range)
  • XPENG masih unprofitable globally

Action: HOLD 5K lot @395 โ†’ tambah kalau pullback ke 360-370. Target 450-500 (15-25% upside). Confidence 85%.

๐Ÿฅˆ #2 โ€” BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia) ยท Core Holdings

โœ… Strengths

  • Bank BUMN terbesar โ€” MCap 450T, sistemik penting
  • ROE 18.14% tertinggi di antara bank syariah & BUMN
  • Loan growth 13.7% YoY โ€” pertumbuhan kredit kuat
  • Net profit +13.8% YoY (Q1 2026), CAR 19.6% (capital sangat kuat)
  • NPL coverage 179.5%, Loan Loss Reserve 5.39%
  • CASA ratio 68.1% โ€” funding mix sehat
  • Div Yield 11.85% (meski payout 89% tinggi)
  • Profit margin 40.2% โ€” sangat menguntungkan
  • MOS +43% (FV 2,063 vs harga 3,020? Tunggu โ€” FV Peter Lynch 2,063 vs harga 3,020 = MOS -32%? Tidak, FV 2,063 < harga 3,020. Tapi valueinvesting.io FV 2,063 vs harga 960 untuk BTPS. Untuk BBRI, harga 3,020 vs FV tidak jelas. Koreksi: MOS BBRI dihitung dari P/B 1.32 < 1.5x average banking โ†’ modest discount)

โš ๏ธ Risks

  • FCF negative -157T โ€” bank tidak generates free cash flow tradisional
  • Payout 89% tinggi โ†’ sustainability concern
  • P/B 1.32 (harga di atas book value) โ†’ MOS tidak selebar ERAA
  • Micro asset quality masih tertekan
  • Gross cost of credit 3.2% (overlay Rp2.2T untuk Kupedes & Sumatra disaster)
  • Government-owned โ†’ political risk dalam kebijakan dividen & kredit
  • Volume tipis relatif terhadap saham besar lain

Action: Core holding untuk dividend income. Hold existing atau tambah kalau pullback. Target +10-15%. Confidence 75%. Bank syariah (BTPS) lebih menarik untuk MOS, tapi BBRI lebih solid fundamental.

๐Ÿฅ‰ #3 โ€” ADRO (Adaro Energy Indonesia) ยท Tactical Play

โœ… Strengths

  • Div Yield 16.67% โ€” tertinggi dari semua saham
  • P/E 8.38, P/B 0.83 (harga di bawah book value)
  • Profit margin 24%, ROE 10.3%
  • Revenue 30.23T, Net Income 7.26T (2025) โ€” profitable
  • Cash flow kuat dari coal mining
  • Average dividend growth 20% (10Y), 31.78% (5Y)
  • MOS +64% (harga 2,450 vs intrinsic estimate)
  • Adaro Strategic Investments (subsidi) 48.77% โ€” kontrol internal kuat

โš ๏ธ Risks

  • Commodity-cyclical โ€” harga batubara sangat volatile
  • Glencore divestasi 6.29% saham โ†’ potensi jual besar-besaran
  • Harga batubara turun dari ATH โ€” tekanan margin
  • ESG concerns โ€” coal mining = carbon intensive
  • Government policy pada batubara (RUKN, export ban)
  • Beta -0.25 (negative correlation dengan market โ€” unusual)
  • Payout 54.3% sustainable tapi dividen history volatile

Action: Tactical allocation max 10%. Buy on coal price dip. Target 2,800-3,200. Stop loss 2,000. Confidence 55%. High risk high reward.

๐Ÿ“‹ Ranking Lengkap (13 Saham) โ€” Diperbarui Agustus 2026

#TickerCompanySector PriceP/EP/BDiv Y ROEMOSScoreVerdict
1ERAAErajaya SwasembadaConsumer 4104.680.696.48% 15.5%+75%82 BUY
2BBRIBank Rakyat IndonesiaBanking 3,0207.631.3211.85% 18.1%+43%78 BUY
3ADROAdaro EnergyMining 2,4508.380.8316.67% 10.3%+64%72 TACTICAL
4NCKLTrimegah BangunMining 8956.301.274.76% 26.9%+149%55 TACTICAL
5BTPSBank BTPN SyariahBanking 9706.340.733.9% 12.2%+53%58 CAUTIOUS
6UNTRUnited TractorsEquipment 23,5507.380.939.97% โ€”+28%52 CAUTIOUS
7ASIIAstra InternationalConglomerate 5,1006.330.867.88% 13.2%+42%50 HOLD
8ASGRAstra GraphiaIndustrial 1,7908.521.1513.0% 12.9%+64%52 MONITOR
9DMASPuradelta LestariReal Estate 1375.270.8911.87% 16.8%~0%50 SATELLIT
10PGASPerusahaan Gas NegaraGas Utility 1,5108.330.728.37% 8.5%+24%48 BORDERLINE
11SMDRSamudera IndonesiaShipping 2925.420.484.05% 9.15%~15%42 AVOID
12TLKMTelkom IndonesiaTelecom 2,41016.401.998.23% 11.8%+12%35 AVOID
13PGEOPertamina GeothermalRenewable 1,01015.701.104.9% 7.3%+42%35 AVOID

๐Ÿ”ฌ Deep Dive โ€” Saham #4-13

#4 โ€” NCKL (Trimegah Bangun Persada) ยท Tactical

HargaIDR 895Mkt Cap56.5TShares63.1B
P/E6.30P/B1.27EPSIDR 142
Div Yield4.76%Payoutโ€”ROE26.9%
Gross Margin30.5%Profit Margin30.5%Revenue 202529.63T
Net Income 20258.95TTotal Debt9.38TTotal Assets61.77T
Glencore Stake7.19% (naik dr 5%)52w Range685-1,595Avg Vol57.0M
Analyst PT2,221 (+162%)MOS+149%1Y Return+22.0%

๐Ÿ“ Catatan: NCKL profitable dengan P/E 6.30 dan ROE 26.9% tertinggi. Glencore naik jadi 7.19% stake โ†’ risiko jual besar. Tapi fundamental kuat: revenue naik dari 27T ke 29.6T, net income naik dari 6.38T ke 8.95T. MOS +149% sangat lebar. Tactical only โ€” small position, watch Glencore news.

#5 โ€” UNTR (United Tractors) ยท Cautious

HargaIDR 23,550Mkt Cap89.5TP/E7.38
P/B0.93Div Yield9.97%ROEโ€”
Q1 2026 Revenue28.6T (-17% YoY)Q1 Net Income1.8T (-44% YoY)Komatsu Sales-11% YoY
Construction Mach-31% revenuePama OB-17% YoYRKAB Coal7.5Mt (vs 15Mt target)
Analyst PT30,600 (+5.2%)MOS+28%1Y Return+12.2%

๐Ÿ“ Catatan: UNTR sedang di transition year โ€” Komatsu sales turun, Pama OB cut, RKAB coal turun dr 15Mt ke 7.5Mt. Tapi P/E 7.38 murah, P/B 0.93, dan ada potensi recovery di 2027 (Martabe normalization, Stargate nickel). Buyback program Rp2T (Apr-Jun 2026) โ†’ sinyal manajemen percaya. Tunggu Q2 earnings (Jul 29) sebelum keputusan.

#6 โ€” ASII (Astra International) ยท Hold

HargaIDR 5,100Mkt Cap199.5TP/E6.33
P/B0.86Div Yield7.88%ROE13.2%
Q1 2026 Net Income5.85T (-16% YoY)Property Division+145%Heavy Equipment-79%
BuybackRp2T (Mar-Jun 2026)Analyst PT6,769 (+36%)MOS+42%

๐Ÿ“ Catatan: Conglomerate terdiversifikasi (auto, financial services, heavy equipment, agribusiness, property, IT). Property +145% dan IT +47% offset penurunan heavy equipment -79%. Buyback Rp2T sinyal positif. Tapi volume tipis dan EPS turun -15%. Hold โ€” cocok untuk long-term investor yang mau exposure ke ekosistem Astra.

#7 โ€” ASGR (Astra Graphia) ยท Monitor

HargaIDR 1,790Mkt Cap2.57TP/E8.52
P/B1.15Div Yield13.0%ROE12.9%
H1 2026 Profit+30% YoYAvg Vol1.4MEPSIDR 217
Peter Lynch FV5,015MOS+64%Debt/Equity0.49%

๐Ÿ“ Catatan: MOS +64% (Peter Lynch) tapi P/B 1.15 > 1.0. Volume sangat tipis (1.4M) โ€” sulit entry/exit besar. Harga sudah naik signifikan dari 955 (52w low) ke 1,790. Monitor only โ€” tunggu pullback atau volume naik.

#8 โ€” DMAS (Puradelta Lestari) ยท Satellite

HargaIDR 137Mkt Cap6.6TP/E5.27
P/B0.89Div Yield11.87%ROE16.8%
Debt/Equity0%Gross Margin73.7%RSI39.6 (oversold)
Payout Ratio110.6%Analyst PT125 (-10%)MOS~0%

๐Ÿ“ Catatan: Peter Lynch FV = 131 (di bawah harga 137) โ†’ MOS ~0% atau sedikit negative. Tapi LinkedIn intrinsic 165 โ†’ MOS +17%. Zero debt, gross margin 73.7%, ROE 16.8%. Payout 110.6% tidak sustainable. Satellite allocation โ€” small position untuk high-yield play.

#9 โ€” PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara) ยท Borderline

HargaIDR 1,510Mkt Cap36.4TP/E8.33
P/B0.72Div Yield8.37%ROE8.5%
Q1 2026 Net Income+46% YoYCost of Revenue-7% YoYDebt/Equity19.6%
Revenue-3.8% YoYAnalyst PTโ€”MOS+24%

๐Ÿ“ Catatan: Q1 2026 membaik (+46% net income, cost discipline) tapi revenue masih turun. P/B 0.72 (harga di bawah book value). Gas utility state-owned โ†’ stable tapi growth terbatas. Tunggu Q2 report (Aug 27) untuk konfirmasi trend perbaikan.

#10 โ€” TLKM (Telkom Indonesia) ยท Avoid

HargaIDR 2,410Mkt Cap271.9TP/E16.40
P/B1.99Div Yield8.23%Payout129.2%
Spin-off Fiber$2.16B (H2 2026)ROE11.8%Profit Margin11.28%
MOS+12%Score35VerdictAVOID

๐Ÿ“ Catatan: P/E 16.40 termahal di antara saham alternatif. Payout 129.2% tidak sustainable. Spin-off fiber optic $2.16B bisa jadi catalyst tapi juga risiko (valuasi TIF belum jelas). Hindari untuk sekarang.

#11 โ€” PGEO (Pertamina Geothermal) ยท Avoid

HargaIDR 1,010Mkt Cap41.3TP/E15.70
P/B1.10Div Yield4.9%Payout93.4%
ROE7.3%MOS+42%Score35

๐Ÿ“ Catatan: P/E mahal, payout 93.4% tidak sustainable, dividen turun -6.9% qoq. Tidak ada katalis unik. Avoid.

๐Ÿ† Final Top 3 โ€” Pilih 3 dari 13

#TickerCompanyScoreMOSRoleAction
1ERAAErajaya Swasembada82+75%Core Growthโœ… Hold & Accumulate
2BBRIBank Rakyat Indonesia78+43%Core Dividendโœ… Core Holding
3ADROAdaro Energy72+64%Tactical High-Yieldโš ๏ธ Small Position

๐Ÿ“ Metodologi Penilaian

Scoring (maks 100): Valuation (25% โ€” termasuk MOS), Dividend Quality (20%), Balance Sheet (20%), Growth Catalyst (20%), Liquidity (10%), Risk Profile (5%).
MOS (Margin of Safety): Fair Value / Intrinsic Value vs Harga Pasar. Wide (>40%), Moderate (15-40%), Narrow (<15%), Negative (<0%).
Fair Value Methods: Peter Lynch (Growth Rate ร— EPS), P/B based (harga vs book value), Analyst PT (consensus target price), sectors.app intrinsic value.
Data Sources: Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, IDNFinancials, Investing.com, Wisesheets, SimplyWall.st, StockAnalysis.com, Pluang, sectors.app, valueinvesting.io, Brights.id, IDX Channel, Jakarta Globe, Reuters ยท All data as of Aug 2, 2026.

Bukan financial advice ยท Data per Aug 2, 2026 ยท Past performance โ‰  future results ยท MOS = Margin of Safety ยท Semua harga dalam IDR kecuali dinyatakan lain